Development of Science and Economic Growth: Statistical and Analytical Review <i>(Case Study: China)</i>

Abstract

As long as the Chinese economy moves to the forefront in the world, it’s becoming increasingly important to improve the methodology for analyzing its development as well as to identify drivers of its growth. The paper provides a statistical analysis of dynamics of the main indicators characterizing the scientific sphere of the country in 2005–2019: number of R&D personnel; gross domestic expenditures on R&D; patent and publication activities of Chinese scientists. In addition, the relationship between the size of the country's GDP and its high-tech exports was analyzed. For the purpose of studying the indicators in their dynamics a regression analysis based on the Chinese official statistical data was carried out.The paper also presents a forecast of the scale and effectiveness of the China's scientific activity for the period 2022–2024 according to which, while maintaining the existing trends in the development of science and the economy, an increase in the volume of domestic expenditures on R&D is expected in 2024 (more than 3.284 trillion yuan) as well as in the number of issued patents (more than 537 thousand) and in the number of published scientific articles (more than 2.22 million). The carried-out analysis showed the existence of a close relationship between the country's economic growth and the dynamics of its exports of high-tech products. According to the forecast, while maintaining the existing trends in the development of the economy and high-tech exports, the projected values of Chinese GDP are in 2022 – 18.6 trillion US dollars, in 2023 – 20.3 trillion, and in 2024 – 21.7 trillion US dollars.The results of the study showed that China's rapid economic growth was driven by both large-scale capital investments, high rates of increase in labor productivity, and the successful development of science and innovation in all strategic sectors of the economy. The exponential and parabolic growth of almost all key indicators characterizing personnel and financial components of the research sphere, patent, and publication activities, makes it possible to draw a conclusion on strengthening the leadership in the economic position of the People's Republic of China in the world and increasing its scientific potential.