DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS FOR DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC RELATIONS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The purpose of this research is a choice of descriptions, which is necessary to take into account for the development of scenarios for democratic transformations of socio-economic relations in Ukraine. The bases of this research are theoretical and practical aspects of the development of scenarios for the transformation of social and economic relations in the different regions of Ukraine. At the heart of the research methodology, there are methods of scenario, space-vector modelling, which was used for the search for an optimal variant of scenarios realization and satisfaction compromise of necessities for different scenarios. Also logical and economic-mathematical analysis was used for the exposure of connections between the necessities of population in different regions and their priority; SWOT-analysis was used for the exposure of factors, which positively or negatively influence on the satisfaction of regional population necessities; correlation analysis was used for the construction of optimum vector, what will satisfy all necessities and reflect on the level of relations. Results. The research confirms that efficiency of achievement for the chosen scenarios depended on the level of limitations for situations, in which the scenarios will be realized. Problems to be solved during the development of some scenarios are the determination of relevant variable indicators and degree of cooperation; the degree of controllability of the variable indicators; the level of boundedness in achieving the assigned tasks. The analysis of existent scenarios for the development of social and economic relations in Ukraine shows the presence of the three main components: external terms, instruments, and results which set limits in the development of events, show orienteers of achievement and compel to make decisions for the settlement of nascent instability. The importance of establishing the tightness of the connection between the availability of certain knowledge in society and the needs that they generate and vice versa is proved. In this research was offered the mechanism of searching a single optimal variant of the scenario realization, which will bring the best socio-economic effect according to orienteers, which are the main priorities in society. It is proved that today’s reality in Ukraine is beyond those socio-economic relations existed in a world community. Scenarios of regions’ development, which were formed without taking into account the real possibilities, existing in every separate region, instruments and facilities, can simply shut off society from important priorities and tasks. Such scenarios will not allow society to perceive adequately the state doctrines of development due to uneven development, information vacuum of the population, insufficiency of regions resource potential for self-providing of the further progress. Practical implications. The practical value of the research is grounded on methodical and pragmatic instruments for searching the compromise decisions during scenarios forming process for the design of social and economic relations in different regions of Ukraine, which unite the entire Ukrainian nation for the solution of priority tasks, which will provide a maximal socio-economic effect. Value/originality. The conducted research allowed getting some results, such as: the scenarios of socio-economic relations should be formed around national ideas; the process of scenarios development should detail implementation and realization of scenarios, on the basis of priority programs, which are satisfying the necessities of society. It is necessary to choose the priority of the programs according to the degree of its optimality and existent limits in the system of social and economic relations. Optimality is determined by the selected society land-marks, which characterize expectations of the population.