Development of reservoir’s optimum operation rules considering water quality issues and climatic change data analysis

Abstract

The need for potable and agricultural water will increase in the future due to both population growth and climate change. Therefore, the optimal operation of systems reflecting these issues will be more essential than ever. This study was conducted to develop a quantitative-qualitative model for optimal operation of dams considering the effects of climate change on reservoirs’ inflow and downstream demands. The statistical downscaling model was used for long-term simulation of precipitation and temperature to account for the effects of climate change in the future. An optimal operation model based on simulated future runoff and water demands was developed. To investigate the climate change impacts on reservoir operation, reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency indices were calculated in the base period and for future periods. The results show an increase in the mean temperature and a reduction in the mean annual precipitation in future years compared to those in the current observation period. Based on the proposed optimization model, the total dissolved solids of the supplied water have been decreased. The reservoir performance also exhibited a significant quantitative improvement when compared to the standard operating policy.