Development of quantitative criteria for assessing epidemic potential of the natural-focal viral infections

Abstract

Notonly directly detected new infection, but also determining prerequisites for associated epidemiological complications becomes relevant with growing importance of new and recurring infections. As a result, a need to assess a degree of their epidemiological threat, or epidemic potential, i.e. determining the significance of related properties that determine a potential to cause an epidemic process and complications of the epidemiological situation is emphasized. Purpose. Develop methodology for quantitative assessment of the epidemic potential universal for natural-foci viral infections.
 Materials and methods. А multifaceted assessment of the virological and epidemiological characteristics of causative agents for natural-focal viral infections was carried out to develop criteria for determining the epidemic potential. The developed methodology for determining the epidemic potential is based on connection between the epidemic potential and the concept of epidemiological hazard, which forms an epidemic risk, and consists of the hazards for source of infection, the mechanism of transmission and host susceptibility.
 Results and discussion. The platformfor quantitative assessment of the epidemic potential of natural-foci viral infections was developed. Within each link of the epidemic process, factors were identified, ranked in accordance with their significance for enabling epidemiological risk and score assigned. The epidemic virus potential is determined by the sum of points in three categories, the ratio of points between them allowing to evaluate a lead factor of epidemiological risk. To assess an epidemic virus potential in accordance with the developed criteria, it is necessary to summarize and analyze the known data on the three considered groups of factors involved in formation of epidemiological threat. To test the assessment methodology, the epidemic potential of a number of diversepathogens of natural-foci viral was determined. The values obtained on the epidemic potential for such infections is based on the degree of relevant epidemiological hazard. Thus, the evaluation system allows to quantify anepidemic potential of the pathogen, compare parameters of various pathogens with assessment of the lead epidemiological risk factor. The platform can serve as an additional tool in assessment of epidemiological threat in case of epidemiological emergencies. Meanwhile, assessment of epidemic potential fornew infections is closely associated with the need to investigate their basics. The epidemic potential is a dynamic parameter that can change with the advent of new data on ecological and genetic foundations of pathogen existence as well as mechanisms for related variability.