Development of Predictive Reliability Model of Solar Photovoltaic System Using Stochastic Diffusion Process for Distribution System

Abstract

Reliability assessment of power distribution systems is an essential concern for electric utilities to maintain supply continuity. In the event of supply failure, distributed energy resources play a vital role in restoring the supply to customers. This paper presents the development of a predictive reliability model for distribution system with solar Photovoltaic (PV) system. At the initial stage, the hourly solar irradiance and temperature are forecasted using Stochastic Diffusion Process (SDP)-based Monte Carlo simulation from historical data. Later, the cloud transients are modeled using the Jump Diffusion Process integrated into SDP. The monthly failure rates of PV system components are evaluated from historical data using the Physics of Failure (PoF) reliability model. Finally, the predictive reliability evaluation of the practical distribution system integrated with the proposed solar PV model is carried out. Results demonstrate the capability of the developed model to handle continuous and discrete uncertainties with more accuracy.