Abstract
The development of pavement performance model is an important step in prediction the future condition of pavement section and accordingly identifying the right road rehabilitation and maintenance in the right time for the right section. The first order Markov chain probabilistic model is used to predict the degradation of flexible pavement in Palestine. A pilot study is conducted on part of the road network in Nablus City. Visual road condition assessment is performed, and the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) is used in rating pavement sections by dividing the roads each 100 m length. The prediction of the pavement condition rating for each section in the first five to ten years of section age will enhance the applying of preventive maintenance strategy and consequently urges the Local Governmental Units to use the limited allocated budgets specified for pavement maintenance in a cost-effective manner by applying maintenance actions such as crack sealing, surface patching, micro-surfacing, milling and overlay, etc.
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