Abstract
This paper describes the development and the main components of a simulation framework aimed to model the bus transit network evolution. The prediction model of transit network evolution (P-TRANE) is a geographic information system (GIS)-based model that develops future predictions of service changes in the bus transit spatial network and service functionality at future time steps. These changes happen as a result of the periodic service review process and are influenced by a group of variables, including the changes in the future transit ridership pattern and future land use distribution changes. The main objective for P-TRANE is to function as a transit supply prediction component for the transportation/land use modeling simulation frameworks, such as the integrated land use, transportation, and environment (ILUTE), by generating the future bus network (supply) information for ILUTE. However, P-TRANE could be an aid to transit agencies and urban planners by means of providing a decision support system prediction tool. Preliminary model results on the case study of the Toronto Transit Commission bus network show that it is successful in identifying transit routes prone to frequency changes (poor performance and/or overcrowding). Furthermore, results show that the P-TRANE GIS module is a promising tool capable of proposing new bus lines, including feeder lines serving rapid transit projects/stations.
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