Development of Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems and Impact on Oil Plume Drift Calculations

Abstract

AbstractWe review current progress on an operational ocean forecasting system for the North West Atlantic. The Canadian Newfoundland Operational Ocean Forecasting System (C-NOOFS) is being developed under a national coordinated effort through the DFO Virtual Center for Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation. The model development is reviewed along with the various data assimilation components and output. The model domain covers the North West Atlantic with open boundary conditions that are nested within a basin or global scale model from the French Operational Oceanography Service MERCATOR-Ocean. The model is forced by Canadian Meteorological Service wind forecasts with initial conditions taken from MERCATOR-Ocean ocean analysis. The initialization from a best estimate through ocean analysis with realistic boundary conditions as opposed to climatology will improve the model forecast. We demonstrate the improvement in oil drift dispersion by the use of ocean currents derived from a data assimilative model that includes the assimilation of sea surface height from a Satellite Altimeter and in-situ data. Useful outputs from this operational ocean forecasting system include enhancing search and rescue drift calculations and oil spill dispersion in near real time. Furthermore, model hind casts permit the determination of potential oil drift envelopes for specific regions throughout the Newfoundland Shelf. This enables scenario testing to better prepare for environmental responses regarding oil spills.Keywordsmodelingocean forecastingoil spill response