Development of Ojih-Okeke modified emperical coronal mass ejection arrival (ECA) model for predicting arrival times of CMEs

Abstract

A modified Empirical Coronal Mass Ejections Arrival time model (Ojih-Okeke Model) has been successfully developed. The model was applied in predicting the transit time of 33 fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with intense geomagnetic storm (Dst ≤ − 100 nT). Interestingly, results obtained using this model indicate that the average error between the predicted CMEs and observed transit time is 5.7 h while fractional error is 0.14. These values are much less than those obtained by four other earlier existing models. Furthermore, this model appears to have greatly improved the accuracy of CMEs transit time prediction. Moreover, this newly modified model has thrown more light to the prediction accuracy of CMEs. However, it is recommended that Ojih-Okeke model be employed extensively in further studies to confirm its high prediction accuracy.