Development of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods for Reduction of Seawater Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers Using SEAWAT Code

Abstract

Unplanned pumping of groundwater in the past two decades has caused many regional problems and tensions, leading to seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers. The main objective of this paper is the use of a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach combining with numerical simulation for reducing seawater intrusion in the Tajan coastal aquifer located on the southern seashores of the Caspian Sea, Iran, taking into account economic, social, and environmental issues. The MODFLOW code was used to simulate the groundwater flow. MT3DMS and SEAWAT codes were used to simulate the solute transport and seawater intrusion. A 10-year period from 2010 to 2020 was simulated for evaluating the current conditions and forecasting the future conditions of the aquifer. The results indicated an increase in the extent of seawater intrusion. To assess the proposed eleven curative solutions, the economic, social, and environmental criteria such as efficiency of applying of curative solutions in improvement of the aquifer's water level and efficiency of applying of curative solutions on reduction in the extent of the seawater intrusion were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The results of the AHP method showed that the criterion of efficiency of applying of curative solutions in improvement of the aquifer's water level with the weight of 0.311 was the most important one. Three multi-criteria decision making methods namely, Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), Technique for Order Performance by Similarity (TOPSIS), and VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) were utilized to select the best curative solution. The solution of 10% reduction of pumping rate and the construction of Gelvard dam in the SAW and TOPSIS methods and the solution of 3% reduction of pumping rate and the construction of Gelvard dam in the VIKOR method ranked first. Combined techniques namely, the Rank Average Method, Borda's Method, and Copeland's Method were used to develop a consensus on prioritizing curative solutions for the Tajan Aquifer. The results of these techniques showed that the solution of 10% reduction in pumping rate along with the construction of the Gelvard dam was the best. The results of simulating this solution demonstrated a 1.91 m improvement in the groundwater level of the aquifer in the MODFLOW code and a 361.5-m recede in seawater intrusion length along the coast in the SEAWAT code.