Abstract
Modelling of solar irradiance is an imperative function for renewable energy based power systems. In the proposed work, a modified Pro-Energy algorithm is developed using level and trend factors in time series analysis for future solar irradiance. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared with exponentially weighted moving-average, weather conditioned moving average, and Pro-Energy on the basis of prediction error. The prediction error has been reduced up to 7.68%, 4.24%, 4.3%, and 5.84% in 30, 60, 90, and 120 min ahead of solar irradiance prediction, respectively, in comparison to the existing Pro-Energy algorithm.
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