Development of models for sustainable green mussel cultivation under climate change events

Abstract

This research developed a green mussel cultivation model to assist sustainable production for farmers under climate change events. The model consists of 4 sub-models: mussel growth, phytoplankton population, the effect of seawater quality on mussel density, and the influence of atmospheric parameters on seawater quality. The integrated model was constructed by STELLA software and was calibrated with field observation data. The model was employed to simulate the impact of climate change on mussels based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: The Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) projection. Results demonstrated that mussel production varied due to differences in the available phytoplankton, the initial mussel weight, the cultivation period, the air temperature, and the rainfall pattern. The model simulations showed that under the greater radiative forcing scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCPs), higher rainfall and air temperatures resulted in salinity reduction and thermal stress on green mussels. Consequently, mussel production was forecasted to decline over time. The simulations also revealed that during extreme weather events, low mussel density, high aeration, and being far from freshwater discharge could avoid mass mussel mortality. Using the results of the developed model, an appropriate cultivation period can be forecasted. However, it depends on the site-specific climate pattern in each cultivation area. Results can be employed as a climate change adaptation tool for mussel farmers. Finally, the information can assist other researchers interested in sustainable mussel cultivation under extreme events.