Development of Model Scenarios for Forecasting Food Production and Consumption in Asia in Context of Solving Global Food Problem

Abstract

The article investigates the prospects of solving the global food problem by using trend, adaptive and integrated autoregressive models (Box-Jenkins and GLM models). The used models meet the criteria of statistical reliability and accuracy, which confirms the objectivity of the obtained estimates. Calculations have been performed world-wide, for Asia, West Asia and Iraq. The obtained results of the calculations show that in Asia, due to domestic resources, the population is provided with opportunities to meet the demand (according to the WHO standards) for cereals, fish and fish products, eggs and sugar plants. The volume of vegetable oils has almost reached parity; there is a slight excess of production, from 2.0% to 7.6%. At the same time, there is a significant shortage of potatoes, meat, milk, and vegetables, provided that the production maintains the trends which have developed in the last ten years. A rather difficult situation with the possibility of providing basic food products by the domestic market at the expense of own resources has developed in the countries of Western Asia. As for the most of basic products according to estimated assessment there has been a significant food deficit of food products. A particularly unfavorable and alarming situation might develop in Iraq. The results of calculations for all food products have shown, that there is no possibility to meet the needs of the population at the expense of own production. It requires the development of modern strategies for solving the global food problem and providing more favorable conditions for access to the world food market by improving the mechanism of regulating international food trade.