Development of methodological tools for forecasting the activities of agricultural organizations to ensure food security in the region

Abstract

The study of the issues of forecasting the activities of agricultural organizations in modern conditions is necessary and relevant. Development of forecasting tools in the management system of modern agricultural organization has a significant impact on improving the efficiency and effectiveness of its production and economic activity. In our opinion, the methodology of assessing the sustainability and effectiveness of agricultural organizations should be aimed at combining static and dynamic approaches, which is demonstrated in the present study. In economic practice, the possibility of managing the factors of socio-economic phenomena determines the need to measure their relationships. Multifactor correlation and regression analysis allows to estimate the measure of influence on the studied result indicator of each of the factors included in the model at a fixed position of other factors, as well as at any possible combinations of factors with a certain degree of accuracy. Correlation and regression analysis allows taking into account influence of various factors in forecast calculations. The research allows to create the forecasting variants of economical-mathematical models of activity of enterprise that allows to choose the trajectories of the most effective economic development. As an analysis and application of forecasting tools we chose a sub-sector of agriculture of the Republic of Tatarstan - dairy cattle breeding. The analysis of dairy cattle breeding of Russia and the Republic of Tatarstan for the last 30 years is given in the article, the food security issues are considered, the multifactorial correlation-regression model of economic activity of cattle breeding enterprises of the Republic of Tatarstan is built. As a result, based on the regression equation, the average annual milk yield per 1 cow was predicted. Thus, on the basis of the obtained results, it is possible to develop further action plan to improve the production-economic activity of the enterprise and search for reserves in increasing its efficiency.