Development of machine learning models to predict lymph node metastases in major salivary gland cancers

Abstract

IntroductionIndications for elective treatment of the neck in patients with major salivary gland cancers are still debated. Our purpose was to develop a machine learning (ML) model able to generate a predictive algorithm to identify lymph node metastases (LNM) in patients with major salivary gland cancer (SGC). MethodsA Retrospective study was performed with data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Patients diagnosed with a major SGC between 1988 and 2019 were included. Two 2-class supervised ML decision models (random forest, RF; extreme gradient boosting, XGB) were used to predict the presence of LNM, implementing thirteen demographics and clinical variables collected from the SEER database. A permutation feature importance (PFI) score was computed using the testing dataset to identify the most important variables used in model prediction. ResultsA total of 10 350 patients (males: 52%; mean age: 59.9 ± 17.2 years) were included in the study. The RF and the XGB prediction models showed an overall accuracy of 0.68. Both models showed a high specificity (RF: 0.90; XGB: 0.83) and low sensitivity (RF: 0.27; XGB: 0.38) in identifying LNM. According, a high negative predictive value (RF: 0.70; XGB: 0.72) and a low positive predictive value (RF: 0.58; XGB: 0.56) were measured. T classification and tumor size were the most important features in the construction of the prediction algorithms. ConclusionsClassification performance of the ML algorithms showed high specificity and negative predictive value that allow to preoperatively identify patients with a lower risk of LNM. Lay summaryBased on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, our study showed that machine learning algorithms owns a high specificity and negative predictive value, allowing to preoperatively identify patients with a lower risk of lymph node metastasis. Level of evidence3.