Development of machine learning models for forecasting the strength of resilient modulus of subgrade soil: genetic and artificial neural network approaches

Abstract

Accurately predicting the Modulus of Resilience (MR) of subgrade soils, which exhibit non-linear stress–strain behaviors, is crucial for effective soil assessment. Traditional laboratory techniques for determining MR are often costly and time-consuming. This study explores the efficacy of Genetic Programming (GEP), Multi-Expression Programming (MEP), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in forecasting MR using 2813 data records while considering six key parameters. Several Statistical assessments were utilized to evaluate model accuracy. The results indicate that the GEP model consistently outperforms MEP and ANN models, demonstrating the lowest error metrics and highest correlation indices (R2). During training, the GEP model achieved an R2 value of 0.996, surpassing the MEP (R2 = 0.97) and ANN (R2 = 0.95) models. Sensitivity and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis were also performed to gain insights into input parameter significance. Sensitivity analysis revealed that confining stress (21.6%) and dry density (26.89%) are the most influential parameters in predicting MR. SHAP analysis corroborated these findings, highlighting the critical impact of these parameters on model predictions. This study underscores the reliability of GEP as a robust tool for precise MR prediction in subgrade soil applications, providing valuable insights into model performance and parameter significance across various machine-learning (ML) approaches.