Development of Machine Learning–Based Predictor Algorithm for Conversion of an Ommaya Reservoir to a Permanent Cerebrospinal Fluid Shunt in Preterm Posthemorrhagic Hydrocephalus

Abstract

An Ommaya reservoir can be used to treat posthemorrhagic hydrocephalus secondary to intraventricular hemorrhage of prematurity until an acceptable weight can be obtained to place a permanent shunt. Identifying newborns at higher risk of developing shunt conversion may improve the management of these patients. This study aimed to develop a predictive algorithm for conversion of an Ommaya reservoir to a permanent shunt using artificial intelligence techniques and classical statistics. A database of 43 preterm patients weighing ≤1500 g with posthemorrhagic hydrocephalus (Papile grades III and IV with Levene ventricular index >4 mm above the 97th percentile) managed with an Ommaya reservoir at our institution between 2002 and 2017 was used to train a k-nearest neighbor algorithm. Validation of results was done with cross-validation technique. Three scenarios were calculated: 1) considering all features regardless whether or not they are correlated with the output variable; 2) considering the features as predictors if they have a correlation >30% with the output variable; 3) considering the output of the previous analysis. When considering the outputs of a previous multivariate analysis, the algorithm reached 86% of cross-validation accuracy. The use of machine learning-based algorithms can help in early identification of patients with permanent need of a shunt. We present a predictive algorithm for a permanent shunt with an accuracy of 86%; accuracy of the algorithm can be improved with larger volume of data and previous analysis.