Development of international trade of ukraine in crisis conditions

Abstract

It is calculated and analyzed the dynamics of international trade indicators of Ukraine for the period 2017–2021 (foreign trade turnover, balance of trade balance, net trade index, degree of dependence of the country on international trade, share of exports in GDP, share of exports of goods and services in foreign trade turnover, indicators of export, import and foreign trade quotas, as well as corresponding coverage ratios) in the article. It was established that despite the crisis conditions, the realization of the domestic foreign trade potential for the period 2017–2021 improved, which is a positive trend. The extent of Ukraine's dependence on international trade was determined, which indicates its transition from the category of «highly dependent countries» to the category of «moderately dependent countries». It is noted that Ukraine's exports are growing faster than imports, and the country's high dependence on imports is a negative factor (as evidenced by the negative trade balance during 2017–2020). A high degree of openness of the national economy and an increase in the realization of its export potential have been established, as evidenced by the volume of foreign trade and export quotas. It was noted that the negative impact of the covid-19 coronavirus pandemic on the market situation in 2020 was affected by a decrease in the volume of foreign trade turnover. A SWOT analysis was conducted, on the basis of which the strategy for the further development of Ukraine's international trade in the context of the crisis was substantiated and practical proposals for its implementation were provided. Based on the results of calculations, it was established that the weaknesses (deficiencies) of Ukraine's international trade outweigh its strengths. And the level of the foreign trade component of our country's economic security is negative due to the predominance of «threats» over «opportunities» for development. In order to ensure the development of Ukraine's international trade in the crisis, it is proposed to use the «mini-mini» strategy, which is aimed at minimizing its «weak» positions and avoiding external «threats» to development. It was found that despite the crisis phenomena, Ukraine's international trade has great development potential, which it is trying to realize despite global challenges and crises.