Development of integration processes in the globalization conditions: Ukraine and EU-countries

Abstract

The change in Ukraine’s position, taking into account various approaches to assessing the development of integration processes, indicates the importance of choosing the forecast for the development of integration with EU member states. The subject of the study is integration with the EU member states. The aim of the article is to analyze the development of integration processes in Ukraine and the EU member states, build a forecast of the strategy of international integration on the example of Ukraine and the EU countries in the context of globalization. Research methods: the method of multivariate statistical analysis, namely factor analysis to determine the factors affecting the development of integration processes; modeling of growth curves for predicting the values of indicators of integration processes. The calculations were performed using the Statgraphics Centurion application package. Based on the results of the research, a basis of indicators characterizing the socio-economic situation of the member countries of the integration processes is formed. It included: GDP and GDP per capita, attracting foreign direct investment and consumer price indices; as well as the share of ICT goods. The analysis of problems and prospects for the development of integration processes on the basis of a theoretical and logical analysis taking into account the strategic directions of development of the Ukrainian economy and the world economy is carried out. The forecast indicators for the member countries of the EU group and Ukraine are calculated. This allowed us to develop forecast scenarios for the development of integration processes of the member countries of integration processes in the long term. Based on the forecast obtained, strategic positions of Ukraine and the EU member states in the global integration space for three forecasting periods are formed. Conclusions: priority scenarios for the development of the integration processes of these EU member states are identified, namely Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine indicate a positive prospect of EU cooperation with Ukraine in the aspect of international integration.