Abstract
The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.
Highlights
The development of high-rise construction as a global process of urbanization is happening at a high pace in many countries
The shortage of land resources, the aspiration to change the cityscape, make it more modern and attractive for residents and for tourists, and the objective to increase the area of construction for trade, office and residential facilities make architects strive to search for new constructional forms and engineering solutions
The price risk is defined as the expected value of the event on the basis of the risk study, cluster analysis of risk factors and the determination of mechanisms for calculating the impact of risks on the design and construction of a high-rise facility
Summary
The development of high-rise construction as a global process of urbanization is happening at a high pace in many countries. Many countries actively develop high-rise construction as a new branch of the construction industry with a view to the most rational use of land resources. At the same time with the erection of buildings that impressively rise above the ground, investors do not forget about its depths and build, if not underground cities, a very significant underground structure. All this allows initiators of high-rise construction projects to carry out the principle of obtaining maximum profit from a limited building area. Much depends on the geographical features of the construction region, the level of social development, the mentality of the population and many other factors, that are identified as project risks
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