Abstract
The current study developed storm surge hindcast/forecast models with lead times of 5, 12, and 24 h at the Sakaiminato port, Tottori, Japan, using the group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm. For training, local meteorological and hydrodynamic data observed in Sakaiminato during Typhoons Maemi (2003), Songda (2004), and Megi (2004) were collected at six stations. In the forecast experiments, the two typhoons, Maemi and Megi, as well as the typhoon Songda, were used for training and testing, respectively. It was found that the essential input parameters varied with the lead time of the forecasts, and many types of input parameters relevant to training were necessary for near–far forecasting time-series of storm surge levels. In addition, it was seen that the inclusion of the storm surge level at the input layer was critical to the accuracy of the forecast model.
Highlights
Understanding flood mechanisms related to tropical cyclones (TCs) is vital for mitigating flood risks in low-lying coastal areas, planning early warning systems, and supporting decision-making with respect to evacuations, which is closely related to casualties and economic damage
The group method of data handling (GMDH)-based storm surge hindcast/forecast model was developed by training and testing with the data set
If the second-order polynomial was determined, the surge level in the testing phase was assessed by calculating the performance indices of CC, Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and standard deviation (STD) in comparison with the observed Typhoon Song dasurge level
Summary
Understanding flood mechanisms related to tropical cyclones (TCs) is vital for mitigating flood risks in low-lying coastal areas, planning early warning systems, and supporting decision-making with respect to evacuations, which is closely related to casualties and economic damage. In Japan, coastal floods generally occur due to either sole surges/waves or combined surges and waves during TC events, superimposed on tides and lower frequency components (e.g., Mori et al [1]). On the coast facing the Pacific Ocean, the maximum surge level occurs when TCs makes landfall. The maximum surge appears 15–18 h later at Sakaiminato, as well as on the Tottori coasts facing the Sea of Japan/East Sea, following the TCs passage (a so-called after-runner storm surge, according to Kim et al [2]). Maemi (2003), Songda (2004), and Megi (2004), the maximum surge level is generated at Sakaiminato when the TC moves around the island of Hokkaido (see Figure 1b) at a distance of approximately. The maximum surge levels due to Typhoon Maemi and Megi were approximately 0.6 m, which isidentical to asurge level with a 100-year return period at Sakaiminato
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