Development of GIS-based FFPI for China's flash flood forecasting

Abstract

Floods are one of the most devastating natural hazards around the world, and flash floods are extremely dangerous to property and human lives. This study reviews the current flash flood forecasting in China and proposes a new methodology to develop a flash flood potential index (FFPI) based on GIS to further improve China's flash flood guidance system and national weather forecasting services. We collected datasets required to calculate the FFPI and tested a series of schemes to determine the method to calculate the FFPI over China. The result indicates that the calculated China's FFPI distribution can represent the risk of flash flood well, especially in Central and Southeast China. It is also implied that the southwest and western complex terrains are more susceptible to rain storms. Then we chose Yunnan Province as a test-bed and also yielded good results which can offer reference to the current China's flash flood forecasting system. Further research can be placed on incorporation of soil moisture and rainfall frequency components into the FFPI calculation method for dynamic warning and forecasting of flash floods.