Development of forest carbon stock and wood production in the Czech Republic until 2060

Abstract

• This study describes the scenarios of likely development of carbon pools in managed forest ecosystems of the Czech Republic. The analysis was based on a matrix scenario model (EFISCEN), adopting a novel parameterization based on forest stand site types and forest typology. The model was constrained by practical management rules as prescribed by the Czech Forestry Act and used to assess production potential for the next five decades under three management and three climate scenarios. The analysis provided data on carbon pool development, including both tree biomass and soil compartments. • For the tested scenarios of sustainable forest management (wood removals not exceeding increment) the model indicated a slight increase of soil carbon pool. For the possibly largest removals (maximum sustainable felling scenario), soil carbon stabilized within two or three decades reaching a mean value of about 8.1 kg/m2 for. At the same time, the mean carbon stock held in biomass reached about 10.2 kg/m2 including belowground parts. No decline of soil carbon was observed for any of the tested scenarios. • We conclude that it is reasonable to assume that soil carbon is not a source of carbon under the current management constraints as implemented in the Czech forestry practice.