Development of evacuation models for moderate seismic zones: A case study of Montreal

Abstract

The objectives of this work is develop an innovative multidisciplinary methodology to estimate shelter needs and evacuation scenarios in the event of a major earthquake in a region of moderate seismic activity that never experienced such an event in modern history. Shelter demand is estimated through a binary discrete choice model based on a carefully designed survey using methodologies developed by seismologists, structural engineers, urban planners and transportation engineers. For each scenario, shelter allocation is based on the spatial distribution of damage and population. The methodology is demonstrated for the city of Montreal which is located in a moderately active seismic region. The results of the choice model are compared to those obtained with the HAZUS methodology which underestimates shelter needs. The study finds that the factors influencing evacuation decisions in HAZUS are also important for Montreal; however, other additional variables such as road condition, distance between home and shelter, power outage, and number of children are also significant. The traffic model is applied after the earthquake for the most vulnerable areas in Montreal. The OREMS software is used to simulate traffic behavior during emergency evacuations and identifies evacuation links with potential traffic congestion. The traffic performance of highways is better than arterial roads in the highly vulnerable areas. Most of the main roads and access roads in the Plateau Mont-Royal and Cote-de-Neiges boroughs are highly congested in the aftermath of earthquake.