Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan

Abstract

Drought is a silent meteorological disaster that spreads over time, affecting water availability for agriculture and livelihood in any region. The prediction of drought is a complex phenomenon; however, the negative impacts of drought are mitigated by monitoring drought events over a region. The present study provides spatial and temporal drought climatology over Pakistan, using 60-years (1951–2010) observational gridded data (0.5° × 0.5°) of precipitation from Global Precipitation Climatological Center and soil moisture from Climate Prediction Center. Using precipitation and soil moisture datasets, a novel drought hazard index is developed to determine drought vulnerability across different districts of Pakistan. Our findings identified 19 districts that are extremely vulnerable to drought, with northern regions being vulnerable to mild drought, whereas central and southern districts are vulnerable to high drought events. By using standardized precipitation index and soil moisture anomaly, six severe drought years were identified as 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000, 2001, and 2002 in different parts of the country. Deficiency of monsoon rainfall is a major cause of droughts in southern and rain-fed regions. This study is helpful for drought managers, hydrologists, and contingency planners to prepare mitigation and adaptation plans toward sustainable development in Pakistan.