Development of designs of four-seat airplanes in the XX century

Abstract

The work is devoted to the analysis of a specific sub-branch of airplane construction and, at the same time, to the search of general laws of technology development. For the first time, a global picture of the development of designs of four-seat airplanes in the XX century is given, priority designs are identified. It is shown that the development of four-seat airplanes goes through two stages: the search (until the end of the 1940s), when popular airplane schemes periodically replaced each other, the airplane characteristics varied greatly, and the second stage of mature technology. In the second half of the XX century, both the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of four-seat airplanes remain almost constant and attempts to improve them did not lead to an increase in demand. The change of technology generations was replaced by coexistence, when each type of construction worked out during the previous period found its market niche. The division of phases, the transition from generation’s change to their coexistence, is clearly visible when analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data of airplanes. A paradoxical reaction of aircraft manufacturers to the decline in sales was found, expressed in increased design activity and an attempt to offer products with better technical characteristics. The inefficiency of such a reaction was shown. It is revealed that, contrary to widespread opinion, the change of technological solutions in production is faster than in development. As a result, most of the market is captured not by pioneers and not by retrogrades, but by followers – those who use modern, but already tested technologies in their products. At the same time, attempts to create and offer aircraft to consumers in a methodology that is no longer in demand have persisted unsuccessfully for decades.