Development of Damage Prediction Formula for Natural Disasters Considering Economic Indicators

Abstract

Damage caused by natural disasters produces the difference of damage size not only according to damage volume or size, but a national economic level. In addition, budgets and aids should be constantly acquired for disaster management since natural disasters sporadically or irregularly occur. This study proposed disaster management methods by countries considering natural disaster damage documents and economic indicators from 1900 to 2017 among 187 countries in the world. It developed a damage prediction formula considering damage documents of previous natural disasters, economic indicators by countries, and basic indicators as disaster management methods by countries. Independent variables of the damage prediction formula include GDP, population, and area. It applied multiple regression analysis and calculated average human losses due to death, human losses affected, and damage costs by countries. Regarding the adjusted R² of the natural disaster damage prediction formula, the human losses from deaths mean was 0.893, the human losses affected mean was 0.915, and the damage costs mean was 0.946, which had higher explanatory powers. Therefore, results from this study are considered to calculate quantitative damage sizes considering uncertain damage sizes of natural disasters, economic indicators by countries, and are used as indicators for disaster management.