Development of China TIMES-30P model and its application to model China's provincial low carbon transformation

Abstract

Abstract To explore the provincial energy system transformation till 2050 under the carbon emission constraints from a bottom-up perspective, this research develops the China TIMES-30P model with detailed characterization of China's provincial energy system and applies it to low carbon scenarios analysis. A set of methodology is developed to project the key provincial socio-economic parameters and the provincial energy service demand, which is the major driving force of the China TIMES-30P model. Results show that compared with the value in 2015, the provincial intensity of final energy consumption will decrease by 65%–90% under different scenarios in 2050. The intensities of primary energy consumption in most of the provinces will be lower than 0.2 tce/1000 dollars under different scenarios in 2050. In the WBD2 scenario, the national CO2 emission can reach the peak value of 9.3 billion tons in 2020 and the provincial CO2 emission intensity in 2050 will decrease by 85%–100%, compared with the value in 2015.