Development of Binomial Sequential Sampling Plans for Forecasting <I>Listronotus maculicollis</I> (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larvae Based on the Relationship to Adult Counts and Turfgrass Damage

Abstract

Binomial sequential sampling plans were developed to forecast weevil Listronotus maculicollis Kirby (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), larval damage to golf course turfgrass and aid in the development of integrated pest management programs for the weevil. Populations of emerging overwintered adults were sampled over a 2-yr period to determine the relationship between adult counts, larval density, and turfgrass damage. Larval density and composition of preferred host plants (Poa annua L.) significantly affected the expression of turfgrass damage. Multiple regression indicates that damage may occur in moderately mixed P. annua stands with as few as 10 larvae per 0.09 m2. However, > 150 larvae were required before damage became apparent in pure Agrostis stolonifera L. plots. Adult counts during peaks in emergence as well as cumulative counts across the emergence period were significantly correlated to future densities of larvae. Eight binomial sequential sampling plans based on two tally thresholds for classifying infestation (T = 1 and two adults) and four adult density thresholds (0.5, 0.85, 1.15, and 1.35 per 3.34 m2) were developed to forecast the likelihood of turfgrass damage by using adult counts during peak emergence. Resampling for validation of sample plans software was used to validate sampling plans with field-collected data sets. All sampling plans were found to deliver accurate classifications (correct decisions were made between 84.4 and 96.8%) in a practical timeframe (average sampling cost < 22.7 min).