Development of Big Game Management Plans through Simulation Modeling

Abstract

Current and future demands on wildlife resources require greater levels of stewardship from the wildlife manager. More complex demands and inevitable compromises will require more sophisticated management plans whose attributes are alternative paths of action and estimates of the consequences. The core of needed management plans is visualized as question banks and data-processing models. Simulation models permit premanagement experimentation in terms of what if games. Examples of what if games are disctlssed to illustrate critical population conditions, sensitive management parameters, alternative objectives, consequences of environmental catastrophes, and procedures for developing objective measures for management performance. This paper attempts to show how information generated from a complex of variables can be channeled into the decision-making process. Wildlife managers are experiencing increasing difficulty in maintaining the stewardship expertise that is required to cope with the increasing complexity of administration of wildlife resources. Managers are frequently unequipped to objectively outline compromise management plans for controversial issues or to develop arguments against activities that may be incompatible with the wildlife resources. The problems are partially due to difficulties in interpreting relevant data, in developing sound, decision-making criteria, in outlining alternative management plans, and in evaluating the consequences of compromise plans. The intent of this paper is to illustrate how simulation modeling can be used to develop comprehensive and detailed manageinent information that may help to solve current and future management problems. This research was conducted under a cooperative contract with the Division of Wildlife Refuges and the Division of Wildlife Research, Bureau of Sport Fisheries and \Vildlife. We are indebted to C. V. Baker, L. Paur, and M. Taylor for their help in the development of this model.