Development of ARIMA Model for Forecasting Sugarcane Production in Assam

Abstract

Background: Assam is a state of northeast India which lives on agriculture. Sugarcane is one of the important cash crops grown in the state. The cultivated area of sugarcane is 29,768 hectare in the state during 2021-22 with a total production of 11,60,025 tones. Sugarcane cultivation is not evenly distributed in all the districts of Assam. The major sugarcane producing districts in state are Karbi Anglong, Nagaon, Sonitpur, Dima Hasao and Golaghat. Methods: This paper is an attempt to develop an appropriate time series model by using Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast the production of sugarcane in the state for few coming years. The study is based on secondary data collected from various publications of Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Govt. of Assam. Year wise time series data on production of sugarcane for a period of 60 years from 1961-62 to 2021-22 have been analyzed for this study. Result: The results of this study establish ARIMA(1,2,1) as an suitable model for forecasting sugarcane production in the state. The proposed forecasting model indicates an increasing trend of sugarcane production in the coming years in Assam.