Development of an Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Associated with the Characterization of the Geological Environment: Study on its Applicability in the Tono area

Abstract

ABSTRACTJNC has developed an uncertainty analysis methodology for application to the spatially heterogeneous characteristics of a geological environment. The developed methodology adopts a new approach that identifies all the possible options in concepts and parameter ranges that cannot be excluded in the light of evidence available. This approach enables uncertainties associated with the understanding at a given stage of the site characterization to be made explicit, using probability theory and possibility theory. The uncertainties could be reduced by screening, to exclude concepts and parameter ranges that can be denied in the light of additional evidence obtained in subsequent investigation stages. This paper describes an outline of the developed methodology and its applicability in the Tono area.