Development of an RPA for Prediction of Radiation Necrosis Following Single Fraction Gamma Knife Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases

Abstract

Radiation necrosis (RN) is a potential complication following treatment of brain metastases with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Several risk factors for RN have been reported, but to our knowledge there are no recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) models to identify patients at highest risk for RN. We therefore sought to develop a predictive tool to identify patients at highest risk for the development of RN following single fraction SRS. Patients who underwent single fraction SRS for brain metastases from 2017-2021 were identified from a single institutional IRB-approved database. Patients with concern for RN were discussed in a multi-disciplinary setting and a diagnosis of RN was made based on pathologic or radiographic findings. Cox proportional hazards regression was done to identify factors associated with RN. RPA was performed to categorize patients into distinct risk groups for RN. Variables with p<0.1 on univariate analysis from the Cox regression analysis were included in the RPA. Patients with staged SRS, incomplete treatment records, or < 3 months radiographic follow-up were excluded from the analysis. The study population comprised 1,011 lesions from 283 patients with a median follow-up of 9.7 months. The majority of lesions had non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) (49%) as the primary site followed by breast (12%) and melanoma (11%). The median prescription dose was 24 Gy (range: 12-24 Gy). RN was diagnosed in 12.2% of lesions, of which 28% (35/123) were symptomatic RN. The median time to RN was 4.9 months. Variables identified for inclusion in the RPA included primary tumor site, use of targeted therapy, tumor location, pre-SRS hemorrhage, post-SRS hemorrhage, prior SRS to other lesions, number of SRS targets, maximum dose, maximum lesion diameter, 70% isodose line, heterogeneity index, conformality index, and gradient index. RPA identified four distinct groups. Group 1 was defined as maximum lesion diameter (MLD) <0.8 cm with primary tumor site other than breast, colorectal (CRC) or NSCLC (n = 174); group 2 was MLD <0.8 cm with breast, CRC, or NSCLC (n = 372). Group 3 was defined as MLD ≥ 0.8 cm without post-SRS hemorrhage (n = 336) and group 4 was MLD ≥0.8 cm with post-SRS hemorrhage (n = 129). Two-year RN free survival for all lesions was 82%, 100% for group 1, 89% for group 2, 76% for group 3, and 58% for group 4. We created the first RPA predictive model for RN following single fraction SRS and identified a subgroup of patients at highest risk. This RPA can help guide clinicians when educating patients on RN risk for brain metastases.