Development of an M.I.S. for the prevention of hurricane damage on the Mexican coast

Abstract

This article describes the first stages in the development of an early warning system to alert Mexican authorities of the possible track, intensity and consequences of incoming hurricanes. The MIS was developed to manage the impact of a hurricane, assisting decision-making before and after the event through the forecasting of possible scenarios. Every year over twenty tropical cyclones are generated over the waters surrounding Mexico: 61% in the Pacific Ocean, 39% in the Atlantic. Of these, around four will hit land or pass close by causing tremendous damage to the region economically, ecologically and of course, socially. Along the coast storm surge, surf beat, storm winds and heavy rain may effect the closure of ports even the evacuation of inhabitants. With 11,000 km of vulnerable coastline and a population of over 12 million living along them, Mexico is in dire need of some form of MIS for effective logistical planning to limit the damage caused by this devastating natural phenomenon. The MIS described is based on MAPINFO® 5.5 which analyses political boundaries, topographical and bathymetrical features, location of centres of population as well as the infrastructure including that of ports, oil platforms and pipelines. In addition a database from ORACLE®8i gives further analysis such as the type of constructions found in the settlements, detail of telecommunication networks and health services. With this information the probable track of the hurricane can be forecasted as well as possible damage to affected zones. As a result early warning announcements can be given and plans for the emergency made in advance.