Development of an Inundation Model for the Northern Coastal Zone of the Nile Delta Region, Egypt Using High-Resolution DEM

Abstract

Egypt is facing several hazardous environmental phenomena, particularly Sea Level Rise (SLR) and land subsidence. It has been considered to be one of the countries most likely to be affected by SLR because of the low elevation of the Nile Delta region’s northern coastal zone, like all world Deltas. For that, a GIS inundation model has been generated using an original high accuracy local digital elevation model for the Nile Delta region, Egypt (LDEM) and the SLR data measured by the tide-gauges. This model has been used to determine the vulnerable low laying areas to inundation from future SLR in 2050 and to determine land-use types and percentages that are most likely to be affected in the northern Mediterranean coast of Nile Delta region. Finally, a total Hazard Index Map (HIM) has been produced from combining SLR HIM, and the subsidence HIM for the study area which will present the full danger of the two phenomena on the coastal region. The results have shown that the inundated area calculated from the SLR in 2050 model is about 50 km2. From the land-use maps, the areas flooded by the sea represent almost 38.40 km2, 3.80 km2, 5.20 km2, and 2.60 km2 for the urban, agricultural lands, fishing farms, and bare areas, respectively. The authorities and decision makers should pay more attention to the hazardous effects due to the impacts of subsidence and SLR in the Nile Delta region, especially the northern coastal zone. More protection construction such as seawalls and breakwaters should be built at the northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta region vulnerable to inundation of SLR, to prevent the occurrence of the predicted inundation scenarios that could be occurred to this region in the future.