Development of an interval double-stochastic carbon-neutral electric power system planning model: A case study of Fujian province, China

Abstract

Synergic adoption of diverse measures and consideration of multiple uncertainties are essential for electric power systems to achieve carbon neutrality. To fill the research gap, an interval double-stochastic carbon-neutral electric power system planning (abbreviated as IDS-CEP) model is developed. In the IDS-CEP model, reduction measures include electricity mix improvement, CO2 capture, transport, and storage (including monoethanolamine absorption and membrane separation), CO2 direct air capture (containing solid adsorption technique and liquid adsorption technique), ecosystem carbon sinks (forest, farmland, and ocean); uncertainties involve stochastic electricity demand, CO2 emission allowance, CO2 emission coefficient, and other interval parameters, which are quantified as forty-five scenarios and three levels. Through the application in Fujian province (China), results disclose that: (i) combination of the reduction measures would help Fujian achieve carbon neutrality with minimized system cost by 2060, their contributions could averagely be ranked as electricity mix improvement (70.75%) > forest (6.03%) > monoethanolamine absorption (5.98%) > farmland (4.53%) > solid adsorption technique (3.83%) > membrane separation (3.45%) > ocean (3.35%) > liquid adsorption technique (2.08%); (ii) to guarantee electricity supply, total installed capacity should be expanded to [156.16, 197.78]GW, where low-carbon electricity (especially nuclear, wind and photovoltaic electricity) installed capacity would occupy [74.68, 76.66]% by conducting electricity mix improvement to reduce CO2 emission; (iii) the changes in electricity mix structure would lead to decreased water utilization (by [48.57, 61.54]%) and pollutant emissions (by [77.00, 87.35]%); (iv) uncertainties would significantly affect decisions about electricity generation and CO2-emission reduction, resulting in varied system costs (in a wide interval of [6.07, 9.16] × 1012 RMB¥). Authorities can choose appropriate schemes according to their risk attitudes towards uncertainties. Results provide scientific planning support for Fujian's electricity generation sector; meanwhile, the IDS-CEP model can also be used in other regions by updating data information.