Development of an Improved Model to Evaluate Vulnerability in Spring Wheat under Climate Change in Inner Mongolia

Dongliang Fan,Jialin Wang,Feiyun Yang,Xiaoyun Su,Zhiqiang Dong,Yuying Pan,Guolin Han,Zhihua Pan,Dong Wu

doi:10.3390/su10124581

Abstract

Climate change has had a significant impact on agricultural production. It is important to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change. The previous methods for evaluating vulnerability are inconsiderate and unrealistic. This paper proposes an improved vulnerability assessment method, introduces the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model to evaluate vulnerability, and uses spring wheat, in Inner Mongolia, China, as an example for evaluating the vulnerability of spring wheat under climate change. The results show that, from 1996 to 2015, the adaptability to climate change of spring wheat production, in Inner Mongolia, increased, and its sensitivity to climate change decreased. That is to say, that climatic conditions have a negative impact on spring wheat, and adaptation measures have a positive impact on spring wheat. From 1996 to 2009, the vulnerability of spring wheat production in Inner Mongolia showed a very significant increasing trend, while showing a significant downward trend during 2009–2015, which is consistent with the actual situation. The improved vulnerability assessment method can reflect the actual impact of climatic conditions on agricultural production. We expect that the new vulnerability assessment method can provide a theoretical basis for studying the impact of climate change on agricultural production.

Highlights

Based on the existing research results, the probability of a negative impact of climate change on the production of spring wheat is extremely high—both in the current climate context, and in the predicted future climate scenario [1,2,3]
Zhalantun represents the eastern region of Inner Mongolia, Taipusi Banner and Chayouzhong Banner represent the central region of Inner Mongolia, and Tumote Left Banner, Guyang, and Linhe represent the western region of Inner Mongolia
The above analysis shows: In the eastern region of Inner Mongolia, the vulnerability showed a significant increase during 1996–2008, but a significant downward trend during 2009–2015, mainly due to the fact that during 1996–2008 the absolute value of sensitivity was higher than the adaptability, which means that the negative impact of climate on spring wheat was greater than the positive impact of adaptation measures

Summary

Introduction

Based on the existing research results, the probability of a negative impact of climate change on the production of spring wheat is extremely high—both in the current climate context, and in the predicted future climate scenario [1,2,3]. The vulnerability assessment includes a sensitivity assessment and an adaptability assessment [9,10]. A sensitivity assessment refers to the response of a system, after being stimulated in the context of climate change, including adverse and beneficial effects. The properties of the system assessed are fully considered. An adaptability assessment refers to the response ability of a system in the context of climate change after adaptation, exercise, and structural adjustment. Vulnerability assessment of the system can reveal the reasons for the impact of climate change on the system, and propose adaptation or mitigation measures based on these reasons [15,16]. The interpretation of vulnerability refers to the degree of difficulty in attacking the system, the difficulty of injury, and the difficulty of being damaged

Results

Discussion

Conclusion