Abstract
Soybean rust disease, caused by the fungal pathogen Phakopsera pachyrhizi, is one of the diseases that causes yield losses in soybean in Thailand. The purpose of this study is to develop an epidemiological model, including the effect of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection efficiency, the effect of temperature on latent period and infectious period, to simulate the severity dynamics of soybean rust disease. The model was solved using Euler’s method, and the output compared with the severity dynamics of soybean rust in Moreira et al. (2015) using root mean square error (RMSE). RMSE was about 6.7 which means that the simulation agreed well with the data. Therefore, the model can help farmers with decisions on growing soybean in risk areas. The model can also be used as a tool to assess the potential disease severity in areas in Thailand.
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