Abstract
An areal elderly migration model (AEMM) was developed to assess the demand of regional development projects targeted towards elderly people. The AEMM was theoretically developed with adaptation of the gravity model to represent spatial interaction regarding amenities. Areal characteristics were classified for estimating the amenities from the perspective of net migration. From 1990 to 2000, data were acquired from the United States Census Bureau, Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Pennsylvania Fish & Boating and National Climate Data Center in 67 Pennsylvania counties for analysis and application. The results revealed that elderly migration can be explained not only by areal characteristics but also by spatial interaction considering the population, distances, and amenities of surrounding areas. Elderly migration is more significantly affected by social and economic conditions than natural conditions at the county level.
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