Abstract
This article is dedicated to the creation of the analytical model of quantitative estimation of cybersecurity of Information Systems of Critical Infrastructure (ISCI). The model takes into consideration the existence, in the discussed ISCI, of both the intelligent tools of detection, analysis and identification of threats and vulnerabilities and means for restauration and elimination of their consequences. The development of the model also takes into consideration probabilistic nature of flow of events happening in ISCI and transferring the system between different states of cybersecurity. Among such probabilistic events we mean any operational perturbations (that can cause extreme situations) happening in ISCI under the influence of cyber-threats, as well as events concerning restoration and elimination of consequences of such cyber-threats. In this work, as methods of modelling, there have been used methods of system-oriented analysis based on theory of probability, theory of reliability and theory of queues. These methods enabled to describe analytically dependence of effectiveness indices of ISCI operation on abovementioned probabilistic processes.
Highlights
This article is dedicated to the creation of the analytical model of quantitative estimation of cybersecurity of Information Systems of Critical Infrastructure (ISCI)
The pictures given below show schematic diagrams of the following objects substituting investigated ISCI: - Multichannel queuing system with limited queue taken as the basis of every channel considered as unified complicated QS with the illustration of its corresponding state transition graph (Figure 1). - Investigated multichannel QS, whose every channel is presented as QS given on Figure 1, with the tools of immediate queue discipline, enhanced with the tools of command and control of channels, as well as tools of restoration and elimination of consequences of cyber-impacts (Figure 2)
Тhis article summarizes some of the results of research in the field of reliability and security of complex technical systems, with the aim of applying them to the study of cybersecurity problems of Information Systems of Critical Infrastructures
Summary
The idea of research conducted in this work is to create an analytical model for evaluating of cybersecurity level of complex information systems that enables to estimate the quality of their work by defining values of main characteristics of effective operation in case of different values of input parameters and by means of their comparative analysis to provide choices of the best variants of such systems as in the process of project development as well as for the organization of the processes of their rational exploitation Precondition to this particular work have been researches conducted in the works [9]-[14] where special role of modelling in security provision of ISCI is justified, there are discussed possible types of vulnerabilities taking place in them, there is given classification of threats, methodological concepts for neutralizing those threats on the basis of complex of measures for security and stable functioning of objects and subjects of ISCI from extreme situations caused by these impacts. This research was preceded by the author’s articles concerning the developments of analytical and simulation models of complex technical systems regarded as multichannel queueing systems, published in the works [15]-[20]
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