Development of a Weighting Procedure for Geomechanical Risk Assessment

Abstract

Underground mining is one of the riskiest industries. It is well established that the investigation of geomechanical parameters at the design stage of an underground mine provides the approximate rock mass characteristics, which are associated with some risks in the design. From a realistic risk assessment point of view, it is essential to classify risky design parameters as relevant to risk groups and determine a suitable weighting strategy for risk-prone elements aiming at risk assessment. Therefore, a realistic weighting procedure is an essential step in making realistic design decisions to increase the safety of mining operations and economic vitality. This study aimed to develop a realistic weighting procedure to assess and compare various geomechanical parameters that pose a risk to opening stability. In this research, sub-level stoping mining methods, which are commonly used in the Kazakhstan mining industry, were selected to test the developed weighting algorithm. In this study, the risk-prone geomechanical parameters for the chosen mining method were defined, and a weighting procedure was developed using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method. The proposed methodology was verified against available data from the Ridder–Sokolny underground mine, and the analysis results showed good agreement with actual observations in the mine. The obtained preliminary results show that FAHP is a reliable method for weighting geomechanical parameters and can be used as an input in any geomechanical risk assessment practice.