Development of a Typhoon Damage Prediction Function and Rating System Using Typhoon Characteristics and Tracks

Abstract

In this study, a typhoon exposure index (TEI) was developed that can identify the effects of typhoons on the Korean Peninsula, allowing the development of a typhoon damage prediction function using TEI and rainfall data, based on which a new typhoon rating system is proposed that takes likely damage into consideration. TEI takes a value inversely proportional to the distance from the center of a typhoon to a district and proportional to the maximum wind speed in the center of a typhoon. In the rainfall data, a variable identified using principal component analysis was introduced to resolve the issue of multicollinearity between the maximum rainfall and duration. The typhoon damage prediction function for all typhoons showed good predictive precision, and the predictive precision for typhoons passing through the East Sea and making landfall in the South Sea was higher than for all typhoons. Since the KMA typhoon rating system cannot represent the degree of disaster risk on the Korean Peninsula by track, a new typhoon rating system considering with damage was developed using TEI and rainfall data.