Development of a Tsunami Inundation Map in Detecting Tsunami Risk in Gulf of Fethiye, Turkey

Abstract

NAMIDANCE tsunami simulation and visualization tool is used to create tsunami inundation maps showing quantitative maximum tsunami flow depths in Fethiye. The risk of an extreme, but likely earthquake-generated tsunami is estimated at Fethiye Bay for 14 probabilistic earthquake scenarios. The bay is located 36°39′5″N 29°7′23″E, southwestern Turkey, which has coastline to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The tsunami simulation and inundation assessment are performed in three stages: (1) formation of a digital elevation model of the region from the best available topography/bathymetry dataset, (2) estimation of a maximum credible tsunami scenario for the region and determination of related earthquake parameters, (3) high resolution tsunami simulation and computation of near shore and overland tsunami dynamics in the study area using tsunami simulation and visualization code NAMIDANCE, (4) determination of spatial distributions of tsunami characteristics (maximum water elevations, water velocities, flow depths) under the critical tsunami condition. The results are based on the most recent descriptions of potential tsunami sources, topographic and bathymetric databases, and tsunami numerical models. We present an innovative study concentrating on preparation of quantitative flow depths and inundation maps with a very high-resolution bathymetry/topographic dataset in the eastern Mediterranean. Inundation maps will be used to analyze the effects of possible tsunamis. The presented research is crucial to raising the awareness of government officials, the public, and other stake holders about the high probability of a tsunami event in Turkey. Moreover, the results of this study will help to plan for evacuation routes, establish safe zones, and assist in preparation for the tsunami, creating public awareness, and planning evacuation routes before the actual tsunami event happens.