Abstract
This paper reports the development of a system dynamics model for the strategic planning of a municipal water supply scheme. The model is capable of handling the critical variables that impact on the operations of a water supply scheme. The model was developed using the dynamo programming software to handle the process dynamics. Other supporting softwares—Fortran, Clipper 5, and Epiglue are used to handle data input, analysis and presentation of results in a user-friendly environment. The model was validated by applying it to the simulation of the University of Ibadan Water Supply Scheme for which extensive data of operations were collected over a period of ten years. The results obtained were found to be realistic and useful for the planning of plant operations. It is concluded that the model developed is sensitive to variable changes and has the capability of answering various operational “what-if” questions. As a strategic planning tool, the present model generates, for different scenarios, important operational information for the management of the water supply scheme. It is concluded that SD model is a useful tool to assist water managers and policy makers in making decisions and evolving strategic planning for water supply.
Highlights
The city of Ibadan has been faced with water scarcity since the late 1980s
Since the primary objective in building SPMWSS is the conduct of scenario experiments for strategic planning, considerable thought is given to the types of experimental features that must be built into SPMWSS to ensure effective and efficient scenario simulations can be carried out
The Strategic Planning implication is evident from this graphic example: Suppose the Water Corporation of Oyo State (WCOS) decides to increase the cost of raw water from the present N6.00 per cubic meter to say =N= 100.00 per cubic meter, the unit cost of production will change from N92.11/m3 to N234.53/m3
Summary
The city of Ibadan has been faced with water scarcity since the late 1980s. The scarcity of water in the city af-. (2015) Development of a Strategic Planning Model for a Municipal Water Supply Scheme Using System Dynamics. The management and operation of a Water Supply Scheme in an African metropolis is a complex and challenging problem that has cultural dimensions and demands a high level of strategic planning. The developed model was tested as a tool for making strategic planning decisions using simulations to replicate various scenarios. In the development of the SPMWSS model, the mental information relied on the mental data base of the authors and those of their colleagues in the water unit of the University and it reliably captured the structure and policies governing management of the water supply scheme in UI. The four modules are housed in the SPMWSS model as interactive and interdependent components for the strategic planning of a Municipal Water Supply constituting the global system. The complete DYNAMO program listing (UIWATER.DYN) for the SPMWSS and the exogenous data file (UIWATER.ASC) is presented in [3]
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