Abstract
Smoke from forest fires is a growing concern in Korea as forest structures have changed and become more vulnerable to fires associated with climate change. In this study, we developed a Korean forest fire smoke dispersion prediction (KFSDP) system to support smoke management in Korea. The KFSDP system integrates modules from different models, including a Korean forest fire growth prediction model, grid-based geographic information system (GIS) fuel loading and consumption maps generated by national forest fuel inventory data, and the Korean Weather Research and Forecasting Model, into a Gaussian plume model to simulate local- and regional-scale smoke dispersion. The forecast system is operated using grid-based fires and simulates a cumulative smoke dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) and <2.5 µm and <10 µm particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10, respectively) ground-level concentration contours at 30-min intervals during the fire in concert with weather forecasts. The simulated smoke dispersions were evaluated and agreed well with observed smoke spreads obtained from real forest fires in Korea, and the performance of the KFSDP system was also analyzed using “what-if” scenarios. This is the first study to develop an integrated model for predicting smoke dispersion from forest fires in Korea.
Highlights
Smoke from forest fires presents a rising problem as it contains large amounts of trace gases and aerosol species [1,2,3]
The Korean forest fire smoke dispersion prediction (KFSDP) system, a real-time smoke dispersion forecast system for forest fires, was developed for the first time to assist with smoke management efforts in Korea
The KFSDP system is operated by an integrated modeling system consisting of a fire growth spread model, grid-based geographic information system (GIS) fuel loading and consumption maps, the Korean Weather Research Forecasting (KWRF) model, and a Gaussian plume model sequentially linked to simulate the ground-level plume concentrations of smoke dispersion
Summary
Smoke from forest fires presents a rising problem as it contains large amounts of trace gases and aerosol species [1,2,3]. The major health threats related to smoke from forest fires are respiratory problems caused by the inhalation of smoke particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10 ), which damages membranes in the lungs [10,11,12]. Such ailments can afflict even healthy people; they are especially dangerous
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