Development of a prognostic model for caries onset and progression from early childhood caries incidence in urban preschool children.

Abstract

Of this prospective cohort study was to assess early childhood caries (ECC) incidence and, based on the data, build a model that not only predicts future ECC onset in clinically caries-free children, but also is prognostic for children with ECC. ECC incidence was assessed at the 12-month follow-up examination on a cohort of 291 preschool children. Weighted general estimation equation (WGEE) was used to estimate the effects of covariates on ds (decayed primary tooth surfaces) and dfs (decayed and filled primary tooth surfaces). The mean dfs at the baseline examination was 0.81. Of the 116 children who completed the study, approximately 22% examined at baseline had ECC (dfs > 0). At 12-months, 36% had ECC with a mean dfs of 2.22. Children with dfs = 0at baseline had 2.95 fewer ds in the primary dentition at the end of the study than children who had ECC at the baseline examination (dfs > 0) (p < 0.0001). Children with dfs = 0at baseline had 5.49 fewer ds and dfs in the primary dentition at the end of the study than children who had ECC at the baseline examination (dfs > 0) (p < 0.0001). ECC incidence at 1year was 14%. The prevalence of ECC at the 12-month follow-up examination was approximately 36%. The model developed from these data strongly indicate that past caries experience in the primary dentition is a significant predictor of future caries activity and severity, as well as a predictor of future caries onset in clinically caries-free children.