Development of a probabilistic life-cycle cost model for marine structures exposed to chloride attack based on Bayesian approach using monitoring data

Abstract

The main deterioration process jeopardizing the durability of Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures in marine environments is chloride-induced corrosion of the concrete reinforcement, which leads to high maintenance and repair costs, with the consequent concern for premature structural deterioration. The corrosion process of the concrete reinforcement has uncertainties associated with quality of concrete and exposure condition. A methodology is proposed for a probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) model in service life through the condition assessment of RC structures against corrosion initiation based on Bayesian techniques using monitoring data. The LCC model is estimated during a structure’s life by using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique. For the application of the developed model, the LCC models of two dockyards in the Atlantic Ocean and Korea are estimated and compared during a structure’s life. The LCC model is updated to consider the safety of the structure (the application time of maintenance intervention), cost efficiency and reduced uncertainty successively whenever new monitoring data of the chloride penetration is available during service time.