Development of a predictive nomogram for acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis complicated with acute kidney injury

Abstract

Background Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common complication in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), especially when patients complicated with acute kidney injury (AKI), resulting in increased duration of hospitalization and mortality. It is of potential clinical significance to develop a predictive model to identify the the high-risk patients. Method AP patients complicated with AKI from January 2019 to March 2022 were enrolled in this study and randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort at a ratio of 2:1. The Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO) regression and machine learning algorithms were applied to select features. A nomogram was developed based on the multivariate logistic regression. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by AUC, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Results A total of 292 patients were enrolled in the study, with 206 in the training cohort and 86 in the validation cohort. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that IAP (Odds Ratio (OR)=4.60, 95%CI:1.23-18.24, p = 0.02), shock (OR = 12.99, 95%CI:3.47-64.04, p < 0.001), CRP(OR= 26.19, 95%CI:9.37-85.57, p < 0.001), LDH (OR = 13.13, 95%CI:4.76-40.42, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of ARDS. The nomogram was developed based on IAP, shock, CRP and LDH. The nomogram showed good discriminative ability with an AUC value of 0.954 and 0.995 in the training and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve indicating good concordance between the predicted and observed values. The DCA showed favorable net clinical benefit. Conclusion This study developed a simple model for predicting ARDS in AP patients complicated with AKI. The nomogram can help clinicians identify high-risk patients and optimize therapeutic strategies.