Development of a Potential Facility Risk Index for Radiological Security.

Abstract

Given the threat of radiological and nuclear terrorism, it is imperative to understand and evaluate the security risk of radioactive sources. In this context, risk assessment is a function of threat, vulnerability, and consequences. Currently, no broad risk index exists for radiological facilities, such as healthcare centers and universities. This study aims to develop and demonstrate a methodology to compute a potential facility risk index (PFRI) based on a probable loss event (LE) and loss magnitude (LM) resulting from a radiological dispersal device (RDD) attack. The threat component of the PFRI is devised as a utility function weighing the threat group attributes and RDD radioactive material preference. The principles of probabilistic risk assessment and pathway analysis are implemented to account for RDD radioactive material theft probabilities in different attack scenarios. Locational hazards and nuclear security culture are measured as a function of radiological facility vulnerability for LE. The LM of the attack, in the form of loss of life and economic damage, is then estimated to construct the PFRI. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical healthcare facility with a single radioactive material asset. For this example, the PFRI resulted in a value of 2.0 (on a scale of 1-10), showing low risk to the facility. The development of the PFRI provides a risk analysis tool that may be useful in making decisions for radiological security improvements.