Development of a novel machine learning model to predict presence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

Abstract

ObjectiveTo develop a computer model to predict patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) using machine learning (ML).Materials and MethodsThis retrospective study utilized two databases: a) the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) adult database (2004-2009), and b) the Optum® de-identified Electronic Health Record dataset (2007-2018), a real-world dataset representative of common electronic health records in the United States. We developed an ML model to predict NASH, using confirmed NASH and non-NASH based on liver histology results in the NIDDK dataset to train the model.ResultsModels were trained and tested on NIDDK NAFLD data (704 patients) and the best-performing models evaluated on Optum data (~3,000,000 patients). An eXtreme Gradient Boosting model (XGBoost) consisting of 14 features exhibited high performance as measured by area under the curve (0.82), sensitivity (81%), and precision (81%) in predicting NASH. Slightly reduced performance was observed with an abbreviated feature set of 5 variables (0.79, 80%, 80%, respectively). The full model demonstrated good performance (AUC 0.76) to predict NASH in Optum data.DiscussionThe proposed model, named NASHmap, is the first ML model developed with confirmed NASH and non-NASH cases as determined through liver biopsy and validated on a large, real-world patient dataset. Both the 14 and 5-feature versions exhibit high performance.ConclusionThe NASHmap model is a convenient and high performing tool that could be used to identify patients likely to have NASH in clinical settings, allowing better patient management and optimal allocation of clinical resources.